{"id":2264,"date":"2026-09-03T10:48:01","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T01:48:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/?p=2264"},"modified":"2026-09-03T10:48:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T01:48:01","slug":"population-shrinkage-and-aging-in-northeast-china-spatio-temporal-coupling-regional-disparities-and-future-trends-in-jilin-province","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/?p=2264","title":{"rendered":"Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Global urbanization and demographic transitions have led to a \u201cdual compression\u201d of population shrinkage and aging, posing severe challenges to sustainable regional development. Taking Jilin Province\u2014a typical region with a shrinking population in northeast China\u2014as a case study, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal evolution and coupling relationship of these two demographic phenomena at the county level from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing data from three National Population Censuses, we applied Pearson correlation analysis, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the GM(1,1) Grey prediction model to quantify regional disparities and forecast future trends. The results indicate the following: (1) Jilin Province experienced accelerating population shrinkage and a significant deepening of aging, with the correlation coefficient between the two reaching 0.93 over the 2000\u20132020 period, exhibiting a high degree of coupling. (2) Spatially, shrinkage is concentrated in western agricultural areas and southeastern forestry regions, while aging shows a transition from \u201cMature\u201d to \u201cAged III\u201d types. (3) A decomposition analysis reveals that intra-group differences in aging levels are narrowing, whereas inter-group differences are intensifying. (4) The GM(1,1) model predicts that by 2030, Jilin\u2019s population will decline by another 12.46%, with the aging rate reaching 29.5%. This study provides critical empirical evidence and predictive insights for optimizing regional planning in regions where populations are shrinking.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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06_\uc790\uc720_Qi-Pang_Shouzhi-Zhang_2\uad50OK<\/a><\/div>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global urbanization and demographic transitions have led to a \u201cdual compression\u201d of population shrinkage and aging, posing severe challenges to sustainable regional development. Taking Jilin Province\u2014a typical region with a shrinking population in northeast China\u2014as a case study, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal evolution and coupling relationship of these two demographic phenomena at the county level from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing data from three National Population Censuses, we applied Pearson correlation analysis, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the GM(1,1) Grey prediction model to quantify regional disparities and forecast future trends. The results indicate the following: (1) Jilin Province experienced accelerating population shrinkage and a significant deepening of aging, with the correlation coefficient between the two reaching 0.93 over the 2000\u20132020 period, exhibiting a high degree of coupling. (2) Spatially, shrinkage is concentrated in western agricultural areas and southeastern forestry regions, while aging shows a transition from \u201cMature\u201d to \u201cAged III\u201d types. (3) A decomposition analysis reveals that intra-group differences in aging levels are narrowing, whereas inter-group differences are intensifying. (4) The GM(1,1) model predicts that by 2030, Jilin\u2019s population will decline by another 12.46%, with the aging rate reaching 29.5%. This study provides critical empirical evidence and predictive insights for optimizing regional planning in regions where populations are shrinking.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2254,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category--16-2-2026","category-2-"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2264"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2265,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2264\/revisions\/2265"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiareview.snu.ac.kr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}