Shouzhi Zhang (Associate Professor, College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Yanbian University)
Global urbanization and demographic transitions have led to a “dual compression” of population shrinkage and aging, posing severe challenges to sustainable regional development. Taking Jilin Province—a typical region with a shrinking population in northeast China—as a case study, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal evolution and coupling relationship of these two demographic phenomena at the county level from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing data from three National Population Censuses, we applied Pearson correlation analysis, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the GM(1,1) Grey prediction model to quantify regional disparities and forecast future trends. The results indicate the following: (1) Jilin Province experienced accelerating population shrinkage and a significant deepening of aging, with the correlation coefficient between the two reaching 0.93 over the 2000–2020 period, exhibiting a high degree of coupling. (2) Spatially, shrinkage is concentrated in western agricultural areas and southeastern forestry regions, while aging shows a transition from “Mature” to “Aged III” types. (3) A decomposition analysis reveals that intra-group differences in aging levels are narrowing, whereas inter-group differences are intensifying. (4) The GM(1,1) model predicts that by 2030, Jilin’s population will decline by another 12.46%, with the aging rate reaching 29.5%. This study provides critical empirical evidence and predictive insights for optimizing regional planning in regions where populations are shrinking.